Yesterday, Today, and Tomorrow: Bringing Clarity During COVID-19 Crisis Uncertainty

A Need for Consumer-Centric Foresight

A year ago, the world was disrupted by the massive attack from the novel COVID-19 virus. To better understand the extent of disruption and the impact on consumers, PepsiCo Foods North America responded with the creation of a cross-functional COVID Taskforce. The team extensively reviewed published articles and conducted omnibus-style third-party research to inform the organization.

It quickly identified the need to “put a face on these facts” that would provide a deeper understanding of the drastic changes to lifestyles and how the organization can create foods that cater to the new realities.

The team recognized a need to understand two key consumer perspectives:

1. What is life today, i.e. during COVID-19? What is the same as pre-COVID? What is different from before?
2. What do consumers expect life will be like in the future? What changes are “sticky,” vs. what will evolve back to pre-COVID habits? How does this look in an optimistic scenario vs. a pessimistic scenario for COVID-19? ⁽¹⁾

“Facing Reality: A COVID-19 Empathy Series”

PepsiCo partnered with Boone Insights, Inc. to design a qualitative research study which came to be called “Facing Reality: A COVID-19 Empathy Series.” The main method of data collection for the series was webcam focus groups, conducted during three time periods, spanning July (n = 16), Nov (n = 16), and Dec (n = 8) 2020.

The groups consisted mostly of pairs of friends and family to promote intimate, personal conversation. Participants were recruited for various “impact” status related to COVID-19, were from extremes – ‘High Impact’, i.e. those who had been hard hit from a health and financial perspective, and ‘Low Impact’, i.e. those who were reporting very little financial and health impact.

Two-hour long group discussions focused on topics like – “life and livelihood” (i.e. money and health), “work from home,” “relationships and socializing,” and “food/eating throughout the day.” To prepare participants to fully reveal their experiences, ‘pre-work’ for group sessions included photo journals showing habits for eating, work, play, and day-to-day living.

Each group concluded with a guided discussion aimed at envisioning two future scenarios: a more optimistic vs. a more pessimistic outcome for COVID-19.

Highlights of the research results are described separately as “Life During COVID-19“, and “View of the Future.”

Life During COVID-19

In understanding “life today”, diary pre-work was critical for exploring examples of recent habits. It was evident that many aspects of life changed dramatically as compared to pre-COVID days, and this had a trickle-down effect on foods and eating.

Disrupted Routines

Routines that had been so long followed, as of late March 2020, viz. leaving home for work, school, and activities suddenly no longer existed; but a new normal began to settle in by Fall 2020.

For those working from home, the key shifts were more leisurely mornings with hot breakfasts, less structured lunchtime with more snack occasions during the day, and staying up later and snacking while streaming movies or shopping online. The presence of kids at home in some households created even greater needs for more ready-to-eat snacks so that the kids could serve themselves while their parents worked.

Financial Disparities

The range of impact on household finances was quite disparate. Those who were hardest hit financially (because of job loss, industry closures, etc.) described concerns like paying bills and mortgages (or rent), cutting back on discretionary spending substantially, and the need for cheaper foods.

By contrast, other households were thriving from new at-home businesses or jobs in industries on the upswing like healthcare or insurance and started spending more on discretionary items for homes including TVs, home gyms, backyard playsets, premium groceries, and takeout/delivery foods.

Connections and Socialization

Finding ways to maintain personal connections with others not only became increasingly important but also increasingly difficult.

Over the year, consumers developed various risk tolerances for COVID-19 exposure which guided how they socialized. Those with the lowest risk tolerance tended to maintain isolation/stay-at-home behaviors, whereas those with the highest risk tolerance sent kids back to schools, attended large gatherings (sometimes without masks), and even traveled abroad.

Those falling in between these two groups took calculated risks and justified socializing by formalizing “pods” or shopping at local businesses to support their community.

Mental Health Issues

Virtually all households were experiencing new mental health concerns among adults, kids, or both. Stress from ongoing routine disruptions was prevalent, while new therapies and medicines for depression and anxiety were also quite common. Virtually all admitted to emotional eating as a source of comfort and pleasure.

View of the Future

Instead of asking consumers to envisage life a year from today, the team took inspiration from the method by Candy and Kornet (2019) and asked participants to think about the future in terms of scenarios. The original method was refined by giving participants concrete and plausible scenarios. And, projective techniques were used in tandem with these to elicit rich responses.

Consumers were asked to describe how a “household like theirs” would react to various future scenarios, bypassing the fear of judgment that might come with any objectionable personal responses. Engaged through this multi-pronged approach, consumers were able to articulate a clear picture of how their routines and habits would look in the foreseeable future under two divergent scenarios.

Scenario A: Significant reduction of COVID-19 cases.

This would bring a sense of relief and release for most, yet contrary to expectations most did not expect to jump right back into their previous routines. One of the first behavior changes consumers envisioned was more frequent eating out for dinner, as the novelty of cooking at home had worn off. Other aspects of life (e.g. like working from home) would take time to revert to the Pre-COVID days due to the inertia created by adapting to new routines. Further, their current risk tolerance with social interactions would guide the speed of resuming pre-COVID socialization. Some food habits seem to take up to two years to return to pre-COVID practices.

Scenario B: No reduction in COVID-19 cases.

Most felt this would have a strong negative emotional impact and depression could worsen. Those fortunate enough to maintain their incomes and work from home were prepared to “do this for a long time.” Snacking habits picked up during COVID would continue. For those impacted by the job loss and disease, they were draining their savings and considering soup kitchens and ready-to-eat field rations as potential food options going forward.

There was an undercurrent view that sustaining stay-at-home was not realistic, especially among young adults or those with a high-risk tolerance for the virus. They may throw caution to the wind, which would lead to an increase in cases and prolong the recovery.

Discussion & Impact

The technique of using concrete future scenarios with consumers and the use of projective techniques in these scenarios bore fruitful and unexpected results. Consumer feedback on future scenarios, and other published strategic planning information were presented to a cross-functional leadership team. The holistic findings were used to hypothesize organizational response, and resource allocation that would take place in these scenarios.

Unlike previous situations when survey data and economic projections were used to navigate through a crisis, PepsiCo now also had “thick” data, which brought a face and a voice from the US consumer to guide plans down the unchartered road ahead.

Reference

1. Candy, S., & Kornet, K. (2019). Turning Foresight Inside Out: An Introduction to Ethnographic Experiential Futures. Journal of Futures Studies, 23(3), 3–22. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.201903_23(3).0002

About the Authors

Anuradha Mohan Kumar

Associate Manager, Strategic Insights, PepsiCo Foods North America

Dr. Anuradha Mohan Kumar is a Consumer Psychologist currently working in the Insights Function at PepsiCo Foods North America.

Ryan Dirkmaat

Director, Strategic Insights, PepsiCo Foods North America

Ryan Dirkmaat currently works in the Insights Function at PepsiCo Food North America helping lead the newly created Foresight practice.

Dana Boone

Principal and Founder, Boone Insights, Inc.

Since 2007, Dana has led hands-on research at Boone Insights, Inc. Before starting Boone Insights, she held a range of client-side marketing and insights roles, with nearly a decade of experience at PepsiCo.