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<p>Whether you should be conducting market research during these turbulent times is a complex question with many opposing opinions – we already discussed the ways you can ensure reliable research results right now. In this blog, we elaborate on several perspectives on trend development and forecasting in the coming months, and one of the fundamental roles of insights – understanding what is happening in the consumer environment. How does a crisis influence trends? If companies are delaying research, how long should they delay studies? What is the impact of postponing research?</p>
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<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Crises Accelerate Trends</h2>
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<p>One of the roles of research is to understand how the world is evolving – so those insights can advise senior leaders and the C-suite about actions that need to be taken. Insights departments should always be on the lookout for emerging trends. And what we are seeing now, is not all that new. After (and during) the COVID-19 crisis, the world will not be entirely different – instead, the evolution we were already on the brink of is just speeding up. For example, e-commerce is definitely not new, but its penetration has tripled or quadrupled in only 6 weeks. The same goes for remote education and work, or some product attributes – for example, a focus on health and wellbeing was already a trend; now, it will be even more relevant. What would have been the reality in 6 to 12 years, is currently taking place in 6 weeks only. <strong>We see many existing trends experiencing a decade-leap forward.</strong></p>
<p>Constrained by their environment and circumstances, people are forced to or feel the need to try out new options. In a way, a product or experience may be new for the individual, but on the other hand, it was already there for the early adopters. Due to these circumstances, the trend adoption rate among consumers is becoming much steeper.</p>
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<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Conflicting Forces Make Trends More Unpredictable</h2>
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<p>We will witness many things happen in the upcoming months, just like we did in the last few weeks, only, hopefully, a little bit slower. Trends are not random events, though. They are steered by external forces (e.g., the obesity issue created a healthcare trend) that differ in strength, speed, and length – and this, along with conflicting pressures, make it difficult to predict trends:</p>
<ul>
<li>A surge in buying healthy products (health-conscious consumers who want to prevent getting sick) vs. purchasing the cheapest products due to a difficult financial situation, or</li>
<li>A decrease in using public transportation (spurred by the fear of disease) vs. no money to afford a car, an increased need for public transport</li>
<li>Length of forces: When will the economy reopen? How much time will it take to not feel anxious anymore while shopping?</li>
<li>….</li>
</ul>
<p>Before the crisis, these forces evolved more slowly and gradually, which made predictions easier than now – in a world dominated by sudden changes in trends.</p>
<p><strong>This is where insights come into play – to monitor the trend directions and understand the forces driving them. Brands need to start thinking carefully about each new trend and try to uncover their unseen consequences for both their customers and their business in this extreme duality.</strong></p>
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<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">How Much Do Actions Lag After Insights?</h2>
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<p>A big part of the role of insights is understanding consumer needs – <strong>research needs to measure trends as they happen,</strong> and so-to-speak – put ‘the black dots’ on the graph. Let’s take a look at what we mean by that. Below you can find a simplified example of a consumer trend over time. You measure the trend direction (insights: the black dot) and then develop the product that your consumer needs. This product is launched 6 months to 2 years later (the red dot). By the time it is on the market, the client has already evolved a little bit, but as the gap is not too big, so the consumers are still happy with the product. If they were to be too big, then the consumers would have an incentive for a brand change. <strong>During a crisis, when trends form and change much faster than usual, it is even more critical to both measure and launch new products that fit the needs of the consumer.</strong></p>
<p>With a steeper trend growth, it is essential to try harder to understand the current trends as the client’s needs are also developing faster. This means that the delta between the client’s requirement and the product offering is becoming even more significant – thus, the chance of switching brands grows higher if these needs are not fulfilled. <strong>Highly volatile environments have much steeper trend curves – when that is taking place, it is imperative to monitor them with more research, rather than stepping back until things settle.</strong></p>
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<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">Not All Trend Curves are the Same</h2>
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<p>Another interesting topic is the shape of the trends. Especially now, with abrupt changes, we might see many more variations of specific trends. This is another reason why it is so hard to predict trend outcomes in fast-changing environments – as we said, sometimes, opposing forces are at play. For example, the healthy food trend – we spoke about the two types of effect the crisis has on it – but which one will prevail depends on how these socio-economic groups will change and come out on the other side of the crisis. The same is valid for online education. Right there’s a surge in online educational platforms because people have more time on their hands (no job, less socializing (e.g., team sports, going out…). However, once the economy is picking up again, you might see a significant drop in the interest, as people will need to work more than before to compensate for the period of income loss, or people will prefer enjoying the activities they couldn’t partake in during the crisis. On the other hand, it is easier to do something for the second time than the first time – so this crisis might have just removed the last obstacles to online education in the future – and online learning might follow a curve as displayed in scenario 3.</p>
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<h2 class="elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default">What Does This Mean for Research?</h2>
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<p>The scenarios we discussed today are simplified, but they are helping make clear that conducting research in these fast-changing times is more important than ever. It is quite challenging to predict trend outcomes (i.e., how significant is the addressable market for a specific new product) even in regular times – let alone during a period of rapid change. Research should serve brands to feel the pulse of the consumer along every step of the way.</p>
<p>This crisis can bring about a lot of different effects – so this is not an easy question to answer. However, there was much talk about agile testing in the insights industry in the last few years, but honestly, we have not seen many examples of real agile testing. This crisis requires faster testing and more of it for a lower budget. Despite this, internal clients will ask for the highest possible predictivity as they gauge consumer needs in order to be able to hit the sweet spot. <strong>We don’t advocate substituting quant with qual for validation testing, nor do we say, drop behavioral research and only conduct explicit research – the truth is somewhere in the middle, where high-quality insights meet fast research.</strong></p>
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<p><em>Wonder how to run reliable research during the COVID-19 crisis? Here are<a href="https://www.greenbook.org/insights/market-research-trends/conducting-research-in-times-of-crisis"> two approaches</a> you can use.</em></p>
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<p><em>This article was originally published by <a href="https://eyesee-research.com/is-it-wise-to-invest-in-consumer-research-amidst-a-global-crisis/">EyeSee Research</a>.</em></p>
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Is it Wise to Invest in Consumer Research Amidst a Global Crisis?

<p>One of the most pressing questions in the minds of marketers today is – is it worth doing research given the current consumer sentiment? Our recent study shows that among consumers, uncertainty about the future and the impact the Pandemic will have on their lives is high (around 60%). So how do we continue to learn and understand consumers in these trying times?</p>
<p>Projections about the health crisis predict a ‘back to the new normal’ situation followed by a recession, so it is highly likely that the impact on consumer sentiment will stabilize in roughly 6 to 18 months. Stopping research for months on end does not seem like a particularly good option, especially in such a changing landscape.</p>
<p>Therefore, the key question is not <em><strong>if</strong></em>, but<em><strong> how</strong> </em>to obtain reliable insights in a time of crisis. In addition to adjusting your current approach, there are new types of research that could prove useful in the upcoming period.</p>
<h3>Should You Pause Research and Marketing Activities?</h3>
<p>Let’s imagine a hypothetical case, a 500mio brand that planned on revamping its package design to look more sustainable. The new design was expected to launch in 12 months and, by doing so, increase its sales by 7.5%.</p>
<p>In the current situation, brand VPs and decision-makers face two 2 options:</p>
<p>Option 1: keep up with the planned research and 12-month launch timeline<br />
Option 2: postpone the entire schedule for 6 months</p>
<p>If they go for postponing all their activities for 6 months, the company can face potential losses of up to 18.75 million by forgoing the sales of the product and the additional 7.5% revenue boost expected after 12 months. Effectively, postponing such investments for after the crisis only makes the crisis longer.</p>
<h3>The Current Concern is Consumer Sentiment</h3>
<p>Consumer sentiment can indeed influence decisions and options, but different people are bound to react differently in the crisis. According to our study, 17% of consumers are optimistic, around 24% are pessimistic, and about 60% are uncertain about the impact of COVID-19 on the economy and their personal financial outlook. These numbers will undoubtedly change over time as the situation develops (and perhaps are already outdated, after a week). It’s a no-brainer that the sentiment is different now than it was 6 months ago, but the million-dollar question is what it will be like in 6 to 18 months when the crisis wears off. We could probably distinguish a different sentiment in 3 points in time: now, before and after the crisis.</p>
<p>Consumer confidence dropped after 9/11 and stayed the same for 4 years. After the 2008 crisis, it took 7 years to get back on the same level. Confidence amidst the crisis was closer to the confidence in the period afterward than to what it was before.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence">Trading Economics</a></p>
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<p>Whatever happens in the coming months, we can already suppose that the sentiment will be worse than 6 months ago for at least 2 years – and probably closer to 7.</p>
<p>To summarize, the sentiment will probably stay low in the next 18 months. Making predictions about complex systems is always difficult or impossible, but this scenario is a safer bet than a magical rebound in 6 months. This is the first real crisis that millennials and the generation X are experiencing – a fight against an invisible enemy that can come back at any time, and in which we have little personal control over.</p>
<h3>The Right Way to Analyze Data During the Crisis</h3>
<p>We believe there are 2 fundamental guiding principles to help you navigate decision-making during these complicated times.</p>
<ol>
<li>Conduct various scenario analyses: based on three different sentiments,</li>
<li>Accept the use of ‘working assumptions’ during the turbulence, and modify them over time.</li>
</ol>
<p>Hopefully, we will start a fruitful discussion in the market research community and come up with many more solutions aside from these.</p>
<h3>Solution 1: Scenario Analysis and Splits</h3>
<p>As we mentioned before, we have 3 segments of current sentiment: (a) very worried, (b) concerned, and (c) little or not worried. The split-scenario approach would entail analyzing each group separately and making conclusions for each group. You do this by overrecruiting for your studies and adding a sentiment-based split, which is something we offer all our clients for free during the crisis.</p>
<p>Most probably, a part of the sample will go back to normal again, and a part of people will stay anxious for a while – so we will end up with a “new normal” consumer sentiment somewhere between groups B and C in the next 12-18 months. Nevertheless, group A can provide us with interesting information as well (not necessary for decision-making), as they are representing an outlier attitude. If findings from all three groups align in the end – then your decision is easy.</p>
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<p>In scenario 1, the winning design in all 3 groups is Design 1, so whatever happens, design 1 is a good choice.</p>
<p>In scenario 2, the winning design is 1 for group B and C, but Design 2 for group A. If we presume groups B or C are our future consumers, Design 1 is still a good choice. Here, it might be interesting to check the insights from group A and see whether the data sparks some new ideas or space for improvement.</p>
<p>In scenario 3, there are 3 different winners. This suggests you should rethink the design or strategy as neither solution is able to keep up performance in a changing environment – and the only sure thing about the future is a plentitude of change. Our solutions need to be robust enough to survive in such circumstances.</p>
<h3>Solution 2: Monitor Results Over Time</h3>
<p>Another (and complementary) approach would be to conduct the study now and use the results as a working hypothesis. Then, confirm the results again in 3-6 months.</p>
<p>The reality is that this crisis will not be solved in the next 2-3 months. Companies can hold up for 3-6 months, but putting off fresh insights from research entails opportunity costs as well. It could result in a delayed revenue and profit in 1-2 years – which is not good either.</p>
<p>What can we do to confirm our view? Try to understand the impact and precision of current studies by comparing it with previous studies.</p>
<p>The best decision you can make at the moment is with the info you have available now. However, the situations and insights can change very quickly – it makes sense to monitor them over time. Use the concept of ‘working assumptions’ and track your conclusions over time to see if the new info fits with the bigger picture. If necessary, later, you can modify your decision based on newly available info.</p>
<h3>Conclusion</h3>
<p>In times like these, consumer research should be a real tool in the hands of decision-makers – something they rely on to stay atop the waves and not only a fine-tuning device when everything is running smoothly. Getting timely feedback from your customers by using remote testing, with either of these two approaches in mind, can help you prepare for jumping headfirst into work when we manage to surmount the difficult challenges ahead of us.</p>
<p>EyeSee is helping clients to the best of our ability in these difficult times. Aside from a fully remote approach that enables us to run studies with the respondents using their own devices from the safety of their home, we are providing free splits based on consumer segment (Solution 1), and redoing any study in the next 3 months, at 30% of its price. We will still be providing norms, but given the current situation, norms are decreasing in importance. For more information, reach out at info@eyesee-research.com or check out our on-demand webinar.</p>
<p><em>This article was originally published by <a href="https://eyesee-research.com/conducting-research-in-times-of-crisis/">EyeSee Research</a>. </em></p>


Conducting Research in Times of Crisis

<p><em><strong>Editor&#8217;s Note:</strong></em> <i>It is one to say theoretically that having multiple types of information at one’s disposal can lead to improved decision-making, it is another thing sometimes to actually have to live with the consequences. You may find that different types of information may lead to the same conclusions, or you may find that they conflict with one another. If the latter, what is a humble researcher to do? In this thought-provoking piece, Olivier Tilleuill discusses the implications of contradictory findings, and that there may actually be a real business benefit to finding them. A really interesting read.</i></p>
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<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Here’s a potential scenario – you did an extensive advertising study and found an interesting pattern in the correlation matrix:</span></p>
<ul>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><b>Behavioral KPIs </b><span style="font-weight: 400;">(Visibility, Attention, and Emotional reach)</span><b> are correlated among themselves</b></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><b>Survey questions (</b><span style="font-weight: 400;">Recall, Likability, Brand fit and Social media fit) </span><b>are also correlated</b></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><b>BUT behavioral KPIs and survey questions do not correlate as much!</b></li>
</ul>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What does this discrepancy mean – how do you make sense of it?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Let’s get back to the basics first.</span></p>
<h3>Back to the Basics</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">In statistics, correlation is any type of relationship between two variables. A positive correlation means that if one variable goes up, the other variable goes up, too – a negative correlation meaning the opposite.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A strong correlation in your behavioral KPIs for a single ad means that if many people noticed your ad, it was more likely to have high attention and emotional reach as well. On the other hand, your ad might perform well in a survey that measures the conscious attitudes of the respondents – they really liked the ad, found it to fit the brand, and could remember which brand it belongs to afterward.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">But when you compare the behavioral and conscious KPIs, you find that their correlation is low – if an ad did great on the subconscious variables, it doesn’t mean it would perform well on the survey, and vice versa.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">There are three possible conclusions about this:</span></p>
<ol>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><b>Either that surveys are not relevant</b></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><b>Or that behavioral research is not relevant</b></li>
<li style="font-weight: 400;"><b>OR that both are valid, complement each other, and significantly increase the predictive power.</b></li>
</ol>
<h3>Conventional and Behavioral Methods can Have Conflicting Results</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If behavioral and conventional methods have a low correlation, from a statistical point of view, this means that they measure different things; and sometimes (not always), they can have conflicting results.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Behavioral KPIs show the actual measurement of how the ad is perceived in the appropriate context. It relies on the underlying mechanisms of our perception, that have a different set of prompts and cues that help us notice things. That’s why ads need to attract attention and get seen first, even to have a chance of relaying a message to its intended audience.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">A survey, on the other hand, lets us take our time, evaluate the ad consciously, giving us an account of the ad’s strong and weak points, and it&#8217;s potential <em><strong>if</strong></em> the ad is noticed.</span></p>
<h3>Uncorrelated Data is Actually Useful &#8211; it Provides a Complete Picture</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">What do we mean by saying that both sets of KPIs are relevant? They are useful for the ultimate goal of all research – predicting effectiveness.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">If you are conducting research and all variables in a group are 100% correlated, that means you only need to have 1 point of data to predict all of the others – essentially, that all the different variables you are testing do not add value.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">To understand and predict what will happen, having uncorrelated variables like this is a blessing in disguise. The complementing measurements will paint a more complete picture in your study, and bring about better predictive value (or a higher R</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">2</span><span style="font-weight: 400;">) – assuming that both variables are important.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">For example, if your survey results show that the likeability for the tested ad is high, then the correlated variables (e.g., brand fit, channel fit) might get you an accurate and nuanced opinion about the ad, but each new question will not change the conclusion about which ad is the best – they will all score similarly high. Instead, if you introduce an entirely new uncorrelated dimension, e.g., is your ad seen in the social media environment, you get much more valuable info that might influence your decision – because if your ad is not seen, it will not create an impact. </span></p>
<h3>Too Complex to Explain to Internal Stakeholders – So Let’s Just Skip it?</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">Doing this would be extremely wrong. Many studies show that combining behavioral and conventional measurements increase predictive power by at least 40%. Not measuring the behavioral side is the same as ignoring essential data. Not obtaining the data does not change that fact – and it will arguably be worse, as you do not know just how bad the stimuli might perform on that particular KPI.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400;">To summarize: behavioral and conscious variables are correlated within each group, but they don’t necessarily correlate with each other. They measure different variables that complement each other and provide a big picture of your ad or product, thus enabling you to predict its effectiveness much better.</span></p>


Why Contradicting Behavioral and Traditional KPIs Can Be Good for Research

<p><em>Editors Note: This blog was co-authored by Wayne Huang, Research Manager, Twitter, and Olivier Tilleuil, Founder &amp; CEO, EyeSee.</em></p>
<p>The transition from traditional to online media channels has undoubtedly changed the rules for advertisers – especially when the target group are the Millennials (or Generation Y), the generation behind one of the biggest disruptions in media consumption. Content might still be king, but what if there’s no one to crown it? To discover the secret of engaging and striking content, <a href="https://twitter.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Twitter</a> and EyeSee analyzed different advertising setups using the latest AI technologies that track people’s emotions and gaze via webcam.</p>
<p><strong>Getting through to the mobile-first generation. </strong>During the sixties and the seventies, television was one of the most important mediums for disseminating information, delivering entertainment and fostering socialization. Half a century later, 47% of Gen Xers and Millennials do not watch traditional television, while every third household is without a cable or satellite subscription. The smartphone has thus become the new pivotal gadget and now we have multiple screens fighting for our attention.</p>
<p><strong>Shifting the research spotlight to the subconscious. </strong>Although Millennials have distinct consumer habits, they are as “bad” at self-reporting as any generation before them – they struggle with articulating their emotions, they are afraid of social judgment and, ultimately, cannot always grasp the actual reasoning behind their actions. However, the latest behavioral research methods based on AI – such as <a href="http://eyesee-research.com/technology/online-eye-tracking/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">eye tracking</a> and <a href="http://eyesee-research.com/technology/online-facial-coding/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">facial coding</a> – can provide information on how different marketing content stimulates the brain, whether it evokes emotions and how those emotions impact final purchase behavior.</p>
<p><strong>Marketers have merely moments to make an impact.</strong> While scrolling through social media, it is impossible to devote more than a split second of attention to each content piece. This means that marketers have a very short time frame to make an impression and they are not only competing with other brands, but with updates from friends and followers, media outlets and many others.</p>
<p>However, this is exactly why news feed can work in advertisers’ favor, as ads are placed between very engaging content. Here are the key takeaways presented by Twitter and EyeSee at <a href="https://marketing.knect365.com/tmre/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">The Market Research Event</a> in Orlando:</p>
<p><strong>1) Context matters.</strong> Millennials demand a seamless user experience and do not appreciate being interrupted. This is why marketing messages need to be integrated into relevant context – for example, a sports brand ad inserted into a sports news feed. According to Twitter and EyeSee, this can increase stopping power by a whopping 42%, lead to higher emotional engagement by 24% and drive 26% more people take action. The same principle applies even if the advertiser is not relevant – the creative solution needs to fit into the relevant surroundings.</p>
<p><strong>2) Maximize branding. </strong>Consumers want to be aware of with whom they are conversing, and using clear, visible branding in posts and featured content (i.e. a logo/product with a hashtag is better than a logo or product alone) can positively affect ad credibility as well as impact brand image and the likelihood of purchase intent. The same goes for CTA – a simple, direct message about the ideal strategies for boosting consumer-brand interaction which will, ultimately, yield the best result.</p>
<p><strong>3) Product as a creative element. </strong>Storytelling is vital for successful advertising, but not more important than the product itself. For example, a holiday celebration in a family setting might elicit emotion, but showing a person giving a gift can actually increase ad impact. Rather than creating the perfect scenery, marketers should focus on highlighting the product within the right context.</p>
<p>We have a long way to go before AI platforms are able to create snappy slogans, but what they can already do is help navigate content toward the customer through the information jungle. Marketers no longer have to rely on educated guesses when creating campaigns, but on concrete data that give us a glimpse into how people consume content and how that impacts their decision-making process. The marketing game has new rules – fortunately, there are new tools as well.</p>


How AI Can Help Marketers Reach the Distracted Generation

<p>Scientific and technological innovations have penetrated almost every area of business, but in market research, most companies have stuck with methods that were developed decades ago.</p>
<p>The main issue with these methods is that they only tap into the conscious mind, while most brain activity &ndash; relevant to purchase decisions &ndash; takes place in the subconscious part. Analyzing only the conscious behavior might provide insufficient data, which could lead to wrong business decisions. Perhaps, then, we need to have a Copernican revolution in insights&hellip;</p>
<h3>What Conventional Methods Can and Cannot Do</h3>
<p>Conventional methods are based on assumptions in line with&nbsp;<strong>neoclassical economics</strong>, suggesting that people know what they want, can predict their own behavior and make logical decisions based on rational preferences. Unfortunately, it turns out that this is not a solid foundation for making behavioral predictions.</p>
<p>For instance, a study with more than 20,000 coffee shoppers showed that the difference between&nbsp;stating vs. actually buying fair trade coffee&nbsp;was a factor 4.</p>
<p>People are also subconsciously influenced by the choices provided for them. Even a minor change in a line-up of three products (e.g. Tesco beer placed next to bottled Blanc beer) changes the preference by a factor 3. Although it is hard to estimate the correlation between stated purchase intent and real purchase behavior, it is generally accepted that the number is low (lower than 0.2).</p>
<p>It should, therefore, not come as a surprise that the failure rate of new products is very high &ndash; reportedly 80-90% &ndash; and that&nbsp;<a href="https://www.fournaisegroup.com/ceos-do-not-trust-marketers/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">CEOs consider 65% of marketers to be living in a &ldquo;Marketing la-la land</a>.&rdquo;</p>
<p>What do they think about market researchers then?</p>
<h3>Raising Consciousness on Subconscious Behavior</h3>
<p>Contrary to the neoclassical economics paradigm is&nbsp;<strong>behavioral economics</strong>, which studies the effects of psychological, social, cognitive, and emotional factors on the economic decisions of individuals. It does not assume complete information (i.e. bounded rationality) nor that individuals are completely rational (e.g. heuristics).</p>
<p>This is closer to reality, especially in a world dense with stimuli, in which the human brain needs to filter out information in order to function. Our daily grocery shopping would take so much longer if we considered every article in the store in order to gain all necessary information!</p>
<p>The founding fathers of behavioral economics were&nbsp;<strong>Herbert Simon</strong>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<strong>Daniel Kahneman</strong>. The latter is well known for his book &ldquo;Thinking, Fast and Slow,&rdquo; where he proposes a dichotomy between two modes of thought. Kahneman&rsquo;s &ldquo;System 1&rdquo; is fast, automatic, frequent, emotional, stereotypic and subconscious, while &ldquo;System 2&rdquo; is slow, effortful, infrequent, logical, calculating, and conscious. The book delineates cognitive biases based on each type of thinking.</p>
<p>So far, market research has only dealt with &ldquo;slow thinking&rdquo;, i.e. System 2; the &ldquo;fast thinking&rdquo; System 1 was unfairly neglected, despite the increasing number of studies proving its importance. This leads us to the question: is the industry ready for a change? In the words of Rory Sutherland, Vice-chairman at Ogilvy Group UK, &ldquo;[&hellip;.] to be frank, the record of the marketing services community, to what seems to be a Copernican revolution in behavioral science, has so far been mostly notable by its absence.&rdquo;</p>
<h3>Updated Behavioral Framework for Deeper Understanding of Decision-Making Process</h3>
<p>Measuring System 1 and 2 is necessary, but to understand and measure the decision-making process more clearly, two pieces are still lacking: (a) input &ndash; data acquisition for making a decision and (c) output &ndash; the behavior.</p>
<p>&lt;</p>
<p>Input is an important, yet often minimal, requirement for marketing communication. It basically measures what information our senses (i.e. sight, sound, smell, taste, and touch) obtain. One of the key senses is vision, especially for marketing activities &ndash; if shoppers do not see the package, they will certainly not buy the product. Approximately&nbsp;<strong>83% of available information is processed by sight</strong>, while&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mit.edu/1996/visualprocessing" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">half of the human brain</a>&nbsp;is devoted directly or indirectly to vision. Furthermore, the latest findings show that we are wired to process entire images in&nbsp;<a href="https://news.mit.edu/2014/in-the-blink-of-an-eye-0116" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">as little as 13 milliseconds</a>.</p>
<p>Measuring the output and behavioral process is important, yet behavior itself is what counts. The main goal is to discover the links between findings on (a), (b) and (c) phases, so that valid predictions of future behavior can be made.</p>
<p>A major part of the consumer decision process &ndash; some say up to 90% of it &ndash; actually takes place in the subconscious part of the brain, aka System 1. Therefore, measuring the subconscious can increase predictive power, as these insights provide information on how different marketing content stimulates the brain, if it evokes emotions and how those emotions impact final behavior.</p>
<h3>Which Methods Can be Used to Measure Framework</h3>
<p>The most renowned scientists are the ones who come up with completely new theories, however a lot of scientific breakthrough also comes from the invention of new measurement tools that (dis)prove and help to further fine-tune those theories.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Neuro-marketing techniques measure System 1 mechanisms via biological aspects of behavior &ndash; such as what kind of visual content naturally attracts the eye or what increases heart palpitation. Here are some of the techniques used:</p>
<ul>
<li>Eye tracking: measuring eye gaze, i.e. eye positions and movement in order to determine where the person is looking</li>
<li>&nbsp;<strong>Facial coding</strong>: measuring emotions through naturalistic and spontaneous facial expressions</li>
<li><strong>Brain-imaging techniques</strong>: functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), magnetoencephalography (MEG), electroencephalography (EEG), positron emission tomography (PET), etc.</li>
<li><strong>Biometric reactions monitoring</strong>&nbsp;<strong>(heart rate, skin conductance)</strong>, which depends on the level of emotional excitement</li>
<li><strong>Implicit Association Test (IAT)</strong>: exposing the subconscious associations that respondents are not able, or not willing, to self-report</li>
<li>&nbsp;<strong>Virtual shopping simulation</strong>: used to re-create actual shopping experiences</li>
</ul>
<p>These methods have proven to predict impact better than surveys alone in marketing research:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Eye tracking</strong>: an increase in package visibility by 10% can lead to an increase of sales by 2%</li>
<li><a href="https://www.greenbook.org/market-research-firms/facial-scanning"><strong>Facial coding</strong></a>&nbsp;can predict viral potential of videos&nbsp;2x better than surveys alone</li>
<li><strong>Virtual shopping</strong>&nbsp;has a&nbsp;correlation with real market shares of 0.8-0.95</li>
</ul>
<h3>Farewell to Traditional Market Research?</h3>
<p>With all this being said, are neuro insights the future tool we have been looking for?&nbsp;This is, however, not the case, as &ldquo;fast&rdquo; and &ldquo;slow&rdquo; thinking work together at any given moment in time. By disregarding System 2, we would be making a similar mistake as the one conventional researchers do now and we would, consequently, base our conclusions on incomplete data. Therefore, both systems are included in the framework.</p>
<p>Through our work with clients from different industries, we found that results, those based on&nbsp;<strong>pairing</strong>&nbsp;traditional surveys with online eye tracking, facial coding and/or virtual shopping technology, provide higher predictability and, therefore, a solid base for recommendations for future activities. This mixed-methodology approach covers different aspects of consumer psychology, thus leaving little room for guesswork in advertising, branding, shopper marketing as well as digital, innovative and strategic research.</p>
<p>Some researchers are reluctant to use new tools and decide to play it safe by sticking to more conventional methods. However, the price of this conservative approach might be higher than the risk and subsequent, potential rewards (i.e. more comprehensive insights) that would come from experimenting with these new tools.</p>

Do We Need a Copernican Revolution in Market Research?

<p>As shown in the report, a surge of online tools supporting qualitative research means that explicit methodologies are still dominant, despite their predictive limitations. Combining online surveys and focus groups with implicit metrics circumvents their in-built shortcomings and allows you to see the full picture beyond respondents’ biases and claims.</p>
<p>Let’s take online multichannel purchase behavior as an example. Even with the best qualitative approach, the sheer number of touchpoints, triggers and exposures makes it impossible for respondents to be aware of every effect and articulate each decision in the consumer journey. Furthermore, being evaluated as part of the study can activate the Hawthorne effect (reactivity to being observed) which alters authentic behavior and answers.</p>
<p>To go past this, forego only surveys<strong> and opt for passive tracking</strong> &#8211; the first step in the holistic understanding of path to purchase.</p>
<p>After consumers consent to be part of the passive tracking study, their browsing history is analyzed. At EyeSee, we conduct a deep dive into 30-, 60-, or 90-days’ worth of browsing (timeframe options might vary based on the category and frequency of purchase). The exploratory phase provides valuable insights into consumers’ actual behavior (not claimed) when looking up the category and brands online. It delivers answers to some of the most common client questions related to category online behavior:<br />
Which touchpoints are most frequently visited when searching for category online – retail websites, expert websites, brand/corporate websites?<br />
What is the typical number of visits?<br />
Where do visitors come from (which websites)?<br />
Where do they land on the retailer’s website?<br />
What is the language used? Which are the most relevant search terms and queries in the category?</p>
<p>Essentially, passive tracking allows you to pinpoint triggers, understand where to elicit which reactions and relate touchpoints, breaking down the complexity of the journey. However, no method is omnipotent, and limits of passive tracking begin to show once the consumer reaches the final shopping destination – e-commerce website. To further understand how to optimize landing pages, hero images, browsing experience, and decrease the chances of final basket dropout, passive tracking should be paired with <strong>online path to purchase and surveys.</strong></p>
<p>Whether you are looking into shopper or ad optimization, the key thing to keep in mind is that the right combination of methods delivers insights that have a higher correlation with actual consumer behavior than surveys alone. This makes it a sound choice, especially in times of crisis and compromised consumer sentiment.</p>


Going Online is the First Step; Overcoming Respondent Biases is the Goal

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