Without Influence, Prediction is Futile

A decade ago, I witnessed a major shift in consumer behavior that I felt my employer at the time was slow to adapt to. I remember the week our Mobile users overtook Desktop users. 

The rise of mobile usage happened gradually, yet caught many businesses off guard. At the time, we had local engineers and UX designers responsible for the localisation of products shipped from the US, as well as bespoke products developed locally. Only one of our local developers were focused on Mobile, with the remainder working on Desktop experiences. 

Looking back, it shocks me to think that we didn’t shift our focus earlier, as the observable trend was not sudden - nor was it hidden from view (at least I hope it was not hidden, given I was responsible for communicating these trends...). But I look to consumer behavior today and hear from industry counterparts that there is a lack of business change to match it. Perhaps I shouldn’t be so shocked.

The Arbiters Of Change

One of the signals that weren’t emphasized at the time was that this Mobile overtake had already occurred 6 months prior, albeit among younger audiences. Being an advertising-driven business, my previous employer’s focus was on core buying demographics, typically 25-54s. Investment in research understanding audiences younger than 25 were difficult to commission, and harder to convince decision makers to pay attention to. What this resulted in was a five year game of catch-up when these niche trends became mainstream.

I give this example to provide a learning opportunity. We as researchers have more power now than ever to draw insight from observation. Where some of us may be lacking is the ability to communicate and (more importantly) influence our colleagues of the importance of these changes.

According to a recent study on video content consumption in Australia, the results among People 18+ were the inverse when cutting weekly+ viewership by 18-34s. TV dropped from 70% to 52%, and Streaming rose from 48% to 68%. And it’s not like 18-34s are “niche”, now representing almost one-third of Australia’s adult population*.

 

Is this a new insight? No. Linear TV’s steady audience decline has been well documented. Are investments in each platform indicative of what consumption will look like in five years, based on these signals? Allocation of advertising spend? Emphasis on creative strategy? Funding for education and training? Changes in content production and episode length to suit an evolving time-spent per session? I wouldn’t be shocked if the delayed reaction and inaction today is of similar scale to my Mobile vs. Desktop example over a decade ago.

Another example is from the gaming industry. The Australian gamer today is 34 years old, on average.

Gaming for a long-time was considered a niche hobby for teens and not-so-teens. Those hours played concentrated among the teen ‘change-maker’ audience is now seen across all demographics. Remember Candy Crush Saga? It was played by 1MM Australians each month across Q1 2024. It has consistently ranked in the Top 10 played mobile games for longer than I care to admit I’ve been tracking it for. Its audience is 69% Female and 36% aged 45 and older. Not-so-teen indeed.
Source: data.ai, Australia, January-March 2024

What To Change, When Researching Change-Makers

From my personal perspective, the implications here pose a challenge for the market research industry, on two fronts. The first is the evergreen topic of data collection, ranging from survey-based to observational methodologies. Panel providers lament the incentive programs required to recruit (and retain) younger audiences. This is a decades old problem. Observational methodologies often contend with a demographic that is tech-savvy, and more likely to block tracking capabilities leveraged by analytics solutions, leading to underrepresentation and misrepresentation in these data.

The second, and the more impactful element to influence action, is communication. The effectiveness of trend communication has largely fallen on the commissioners of research, typically marketers or in-house research specialists. We haven’t done our job, as the influence gap still exists.

There’s an opportunity for market research agencies and consultants to step up here and elevate their service, thinking of themselves more than just methodologists and producers of 100+ page decks... I jest, and also appreciate the difficulty in developing this expertise without the broader context that sits within corporate walls. The opportunity exists nonetheless. There is also an opportunity for in-house researchers to better understand the underlying problems that stakeholders face, to more effectively position research directly addressing these challenges.

As market researchers, we have a responsibility to not just observe these changes, but proactively communicate and influence how to adapt to them. By using the tools at our disposal to uncover and amplify insights about evolving consumer behavior, especially among younger and more tech-savvy audiences, we can help steer our stakeholders away from short-term thinking and build towards a future that we can position with confidence.