In this episode of The Greenbook Podcast, host Karen Lynch is joined by David Deeley, Senior Insights Manager, and Brian Short, Consumer Insights Specialist, from Kerry. Together, they discuss the importance of scenario testing to tackle uncertainty in the food and beverage industry.

Drawing from their presentation at IIEX Europe, David and Brian explain how Kerry uses foresight and scenario planning to anticipate shifts in the market, navigate challenges like climate change, and support innovation. This thought-provoking conversation explores how frameworks and collaboration between insights, R&D, and customers drive impactful solutions for the future.

In this episode, we’ll explore:

• Scenario Planning Basics: How scenario testing differs from trend-based forecasting.
• FutureLens Framework: Kerry’s foresight program for anticipating industry shifts.
• Consumer Insights and Data Sources: Integrating proprietary research with macro trends.
• Use Cases: Examples of scenario planning in action, including innovations in iced beverages and supporting a major European retailer.
• Advice for Businesses: Tips on incorporating scenario planning into strategy and innovation efforts.

Resources/Links:

• Kerry Taste and Nutrition Trends
• Kerry Health and Nutrition Institute
• IIEX Europe Information

You can reach out to David on LinkedIn.

You can reach out to Brian on LinkedIn. 

Many thanks to David Deeley and Brian Short for joining the show. Thanks also to our production team and our editor at Big Bad Audio.

Transcript

Karen: Hello everybody. Welcome to another episode of the Greenbook Podcast. I’m Karen Lynch, and I’m happy to be hosting today’s episode with two gentlemen that I had the pleasure of meeting at our IIEX Europe event. They are both from Kerry. We have David Deeley, who is joining me, a senior insights manager at Kerry, and then Brian Short, he’s a consumer insights specialist at Kerry. And I’m excited for this conversation. We’ll be digging into their talk a little bit, but really just the bigger picture, which was on scenario testing. The name of the talk was officially, “Embracing Uncertainty: Bolstering Forecasts With Future Scenarios.” So, for everybody who tracks, kind of, the future of insights and the future of whatever industry they’re in, it’s actually a fantastic thing to wrangle, which is, how do you plan for an uncertain future? How do you face that ambiguity? It’s super critical in the market, especially in the food and beverage market, where Kerry operates. So gentlemen, we can talk a little bit more about the importance of scenario testing in a moment, but first, let me welcome you to the show.

David: It’s great to be here, Karen. Thank you very much for having us. David Deeley is my name, and I work on our insights team with Europe at Kerry. So essentially, we’re a global multinational serving the food, beverage, and pharmaceutical sectors, with sustainable nutrition at the core of our offering. So, sustainable nutrition means producing products that are nutritionally superior, authentic in taste, and more accessible to more people globally, all while having a minimal impact on the environment. So, at Kerry, my job, and Brian’s job as well, is to work with our teams to really inspire them to think differently, to be more outward-looking, to be more future-focused, and essentially to bring the consumer into the conversation and ensure that we’re representing what’s happening from a consumer level in any innovation conversations that we’re having, in any kind of product development conversations that we’re having, but also as well, within our strategy teams, and with our M&A teams, for example, to help them to be more outward-looking and be more future-focused in terms of the changes that we’re seeing in the market and at a broader cultural level as well.

Karen: Thank you, David. Brian, yeah, please go ahead and build on David with your own introduction on what David was saying.

Brian: Excellent. Thanks. Thanks so much, Karen, and thanks, David. Yeah, so my name is Brian Short, and I’m a consumer and market insights specialist, again for our European team. And so, like David says, our job is really, all around inspiring and informing our teams, not only, you know, marketing and sales, but also, you know, quite broadly in terms of our [R&D 00:02:32] teams and our scientists, experts in Kerry. And so, yeah, one of the ways and one of the key tools that we use to do this is FutureLens has been our foresight program. So yeah, really, really delighted to be talking to you about it here today.

Karen: Now, you know it’s no surprise to anybody who knows me that one of the scenarios you shared that you didn’t dig into on stage at IIEX Europe was, what happens with climate change, what would happen to the coffee industry. So, spoiler alert, we’re going to have to talk about that on some level because [laugh] you had me having, like, an anxiety attack, and then that’s not what you dug into on stage. So, recognize we might have to talk about that. But in the meantime, let’s just take a step back and explain to people who may not be familiar with scenario testing, kind of, what it is at a basic level, and why it’s important.

David: I think you set it up pretty nicely in the intro, kind in terms of, like, the changes that we’re seeing, the uncertainty that’s already within our systems, within our markets, within the environments that we operate in. If we take the food environment, the food system, it causes 30% of greenhouse gas emissions, which, I suppose, greatly contribute to climate change, and I suppose, reducing emissions, especially those from waste, is a key area that we at Kerry can significantly help in fighting that change. The challenges that we face in terms of balancing economic growth within environmental sustainability, navigating regulatory complexities, ensuring stakeholder engagement, consumer engagement, and overcoming these challenges requires collaboration, innovation, and it also requires a long-term commitment to thinking about the future together, to thinking about sustainability. And really, what we’ve observed since bringing this into our business is that the scenario planning techniques allows us to think about these challenges in a way that’s succinct, in a way that’s formulative, and it pushes us away from a linear view of the future by considering how trends converge to create, ultimately, more divergent outcomes. So, it enables us to think about the longer-term possibilities, the plausible futures that are shaping the world that we’re in. It’s a structured framework for us to think about and understand the risks, the challenges that are existing within our environment, and really, I suppose, having a framework for us to future-proof our decisions, to think about our strategies, to build in that change that we’re observing, and allow wiggle room for that change, as well, as these kind of changes or, you know, unforeseen circumstances and events come around the corner, and ultimately, about promoting long-term thinking and a thought leadership mindset within our own internal teams at Kerry, but also with our customers as well.

Karen: Yeah, let me ask you this, which might seem like a fairly basic question—and again, not really in the brief, but I’m sure you can answer it because you have this expertise—what’s the timing we’re talking about? So, when we say, you know, long-term planning, future planning, I’m thinking, are we talking five years in the future? Are we talking 20 years in the future? How far out do people look when they’re thinking about this?

Brian: So, when it comes to FutureLens specifically, I think that’s a really good question in terms of this is foresight, it’s not, you know, trend-based forecasting, it is scenario planning. And when we are looking at our FutureLens framework in totality, these scenarios are set in 2030, which, you know, isn’t all that far away when we consider we’re about to, you know, approaching 2025, so just over five years away. We know these scenarios, we are looking at them from now, and then the next part, and then beyond that, right? So, we’re not just stopping at 2030, and saying that, you know, here’s the scenario, here’s what it entails, and here’s what consumer behavior might look like, but we’re also stretching that beyond. And if that continues to evolve, and we continue to see those emerging signals in the world, how does that affect, you know, Kerry internally first, and how does that affect the food industry more broadly, and our key customers then, too.

David: I think the key piece is that there are provocations, right? Like, I think, you know, while they’re set in 2030, we’re not saying that we’re predicting this is definitely going to happen in 2030, right? I think that’s the key part of it. There’s an element of storytelling and creativity within them to provoke thought. And, you know, we’re saying that there’s probably aspects of each of these scenarios that will come true, that are, actually, some of them are coming through today as we look to it. That’s the plausible nature of it. What would happen if they represented, you know, let’s say within one of our scenarios, which is high-science food, if that was to represent 30% of our production, which is like, you know, CRISPR gene editing, CRISP precision fermentation, all of these technologies which are quite small today and still being tested and scaled up, but if they were to kind of expand and, in 2030, be 20, 30, 40% of our food industry production, what would that mean for us? And how are we going to be ready and prepared for that future?

Karen: So, here’s a question I have. And Brian, you mentioned how this is different from trend-based forecasting briefly. And I knew that would come up, and I think I’d love to clarify that difference for people, make it really tangible. How is, you know, scenario planning, testing, forecasting, different from trend forecasting and trend-based preparation for the future? How would you answer that?

Brian: Yeah, there’s kind of multiple ways, I suppose is the clear short answer, but in terms of how it does differ, you know, trends are obviously moving at different rates across different markets et cetera, and tend to be in that shorter time frame, right, you know, in the next one or two years, and what we’re seeing in terms of those signals in the market today, and how they will evolve in the more shorter-term. When it comes to scenario planning, we’re looking broader, we’re looking bigger, and we’re using a horizon-scanning process to really test that, and in the case of FutureLens, tested it amongst a number of critical uncertainties—which I’m sure we’ll get into—which really allows us to cast our net very wide in terms of the changes that not only are we seeing today, but if X and Y happens, how does one, two, and three be affected. So, it’s really looking at that overall landscape in 2030, so beyond that shorter time frame is how I’d say it differs in that aspect. But one thing I would add, before I pass over to David and see what he has to add on to that is, you know, it’s not to say that, you know, trend-based forecasts goes out the window in Kerry, and we don’t use it. We very much do still use it. And we’ve seen some really clear synergies there, where, you know, the trend-based forecasting and the scenario framework work quite nicely together, and the trends act as, you know, those are early emerging signals, and we have some really good examples or case studies of how that has come to life, particularly in Europe, when we’re focusing on that side of the business, too.

David: I’ll add to that and, Brian, you covered it perfectly. We worked with a team at Kantar on developing our framework and FutureLens, and Meredith Smith was, when she was explaining this to some of our teams at the initial, kind of, stakeholder consultation piece, she talked about it in terms of, if we think of a puppy. When a puppy is born, and their initial growth spurt in the first eight weeks of their lives. And obviously that’s quite significant. Like, they grow quite a lot in those first eight weeks. And then if we’re to expand that out and project on that basis, if they continue growing on that eight-week basis in one year and two year terms, you’d have a very strange-looking dog at the end of that process. So, what scenario planning allows us to do is consider how that might change over time. How, you know, these black swan events, gray rhino events, whatever you want to call them, come around the corner and impact consumer behavior, impact attitudes in three, four years, how they then change and converge. And ultimately, it’s about getting to a place where we’re having more divergent conversations and really stretching the thinking, so it’s been phenomenal in that way. But I think absolutely agree with you, Brian, it hasn’t replaced trends in our business. We continue to use them. And I think, you know, in the food industry, in particular, trends come and go very quickly. And you know, from a flavor perspective, from a taste perspective, you could probably argue some of those are probably fads more so than trends, but it’s important for us to look at those, and actually look at those in a way that agile and supports innovation as well. But yeah, it’s fascinating to see how they both, kind of, connect and work together.

Karen: What I’m very interested in now, again, like—and I apologize because so many of these questions that I want to ask aren’t necessarily in a brief that I sent you in advance—but you know, I’m sitting here, and of course, as a researcher, I’m like talk to me about the consumer insights and how the consumers are informing your work. Is that a part of the scenario planning process? Like, just kind of lay it out for me how it works [laugh].

David: We wanted to be very much focused on the external environment at the outside of this piece. So Kerry, obviously, is a massive multinational, you know, we have over 20,000 employees, 1100 scientists, there’s a huge range of expertise within the business. But we also know that there’s a big world out there outside of Kerry, so we wanted to ensure that our concentrate focused on the external environment. And there’s two parts to that external environment. The first was very much looking at the bottom-up view. So, what we were hearing from consumers, what we were hearing from people in markets globally, we would have tapped into all of our own proprietary research at Kerry, we speak to over 30,000 consumers every year across every continent, and we track and change a lot of categories that we operate in. We work across food, beverage, snacking, food service, and then everything that falls out underneath that. So, a huge amount of data and a wealth of knowledge on that basis. But then we also wanted, predominantly, in this space to look at the macro forces of change that are shifting our environment. So, within this, what we did is we built a range of eight critical uncertainties that are shaping the way in which we’re not sure that the future is going to shift or change from a food industry perspective. And I mean, there’s a range of those, our planetary health, the spheres of influence, the way in which we consider food, from you know, a pleasure or a functional perspective. And I think critically, and something that we’re seeing quite a bit and kind of really ramp up, is that availability of resources within our own industry, and particularly from a food and beverage perspective, and mapping that from an uncertainty of, are we going to be in an era where we have scarcity in certain resources? Are we going to be in an era where there’s abundance across certain areas? And what that does is it helps us to think about, you know, as many of the world’s natural resources are under threat from overuse, from climate change, that will happen, and we know it’s happening, what’s going to happen to their quality, their reliability, and their availability. And I think this matters because, you know, it has a high impact on price, obviously, and it has a high impact on affordability, or affordability in certain markets, the impact on where food and ingredients are grown and produced, and an impact on the volume and the type of ingredients that are available regionally and globally. And I think we’re continuing to see that difficulty span across the globe, and how that impacts on a globally connected system. So, we then take those critical uncertainties, and we spoke to a range of experts, so cultural anthropologists, medical doctors, nutritionists, scientists, food [futurists 00:13:09], a range of people, and that allows us to really stretch our thinking again, just focus on what we’re seeing in the external environment. And then at that point, when we had created all those provocations, all those thought-starters, we then brought it into Kerry, and we started to workshop it within our teams, within our business, and out of that, we started to create those seven scenarios across the, kind of, four quadrants of thinking that we presented at IIEX. And essentially that’s where we start from. That’s the kind of initial, kind of, part of the process. And then we kind of bring that forward into certain areas that we’re looking at, whether it’s a strategic planning session or whether it’s an innovation session, it’s kind of across the board from that basis. So, to answer your question, I suppose, Karen, there is a consumer element to it, but predominantly what we’re focused on is what’s happening in the broader world, and how that might then shift how consumers are. Because it is very difficult, right, to ask consumers about the future. You know, we all have enough going on in our lives without thinking about the future of whatever, so we use kind of a multi-facet framework to think about those changes, and really to anticipate how that might impact on consumer behavior into the future.

Karen: Enter the sweaty palms as you were talking about the what-if scenarios and the coffee bean production. But it’s okay. I’m okay. I’m managing my addiction, [laugh] and my fear of the future. Anyway, we’ll get there. But Brian, anything you wanted to add when David was talking? You were doing some nodding.

Brian: Yeah, the only thing that I would add—and I think, like, David has painted a really nice picture in terms of how that input led, you know, that touchpoint with the consumer was very much grounded in it, and then we layered it right up to, I suppose, those critical uncertainties on the expert opinion, which really stretched our thinking. The only thing I would add, in terms of like, that’s the input, and in terms of the outputs, FutureLens lives in, I suppose, the center, and we constantly are getting outputs, such as other research from, say, for example, at the moment, we’re doing some research into snacking and beverage, into those categories, and we can use that research then and overlay it with our seven scenarios, or you know, a given number of scenarios that we have prioritized, to really overlay that thinking and see, okay well, if this is the consumers' opinion right now, what does it mean in that scenario? How does that evolve? So, it’s probably, like, another touchpoint, albeit it is independent of, say, FutureLens itself, but it just allows us to, kind of, really stretch our thinking in a given category through alternate research, I suppose, as well, yeah.

Karen: You know, one of the questions that I have is, you know, the role of data and how it factors in, but even broader now, what I’m thinking about is, what other sources of data. So, we talked about, kind of, consumer input to the best of their ability, how they can inform consumer insights, can inform your work. But what are your other sort of sources of data? Where are you getting some of your information from that helps guide your decision-making?

David: We would have kind of tapped into lots of, you know, the FAO, the WHO, OECD, European Union, the range of kind of external, you know, reliable data points that you can pull from, in terms of the direction of travel from, you know, availability of resources and all of those other pieces that are going through, as well as, like, population change, demographics changes. So, they play a critical role. So, when we were actually building out those uncertainties, they were kind of the bedrock of all of those data points that we can pull from externally. And I think, you know, we’re fortunate in that, you know, AI and all of that can support us in pulling that data in a really succinct way. Obviously, you do need to double-check everything, and make sure that it’s actually linked back to a reality, and it’s not hallucinating, but it allowed us to do that in a very quick way. So, what we did is we pulled all those data points together, and we started to kind of shape them into themes or areas that were coming out of those, and they kind of fell out under those eight critical uncertainties. So they’re, kind of, the kind of multitude of data points that we would have taken from, as well as looking at the publications. So, The Economist, Financial Times, as well as New Nutrition Business, and pulling from specific studies from, you know, academia, as well as the clinical trials that were happening on that basis as well, in terms of the impact of food and body on the mind. I think, as well, when we connected in with our experts at that point, they often shared additional resources, so additional studies that they had been doing. A lot of them were PhDs or, you know, had done kind of research in their own work, and that allowed us to kind of build that perspective in there as well. So, it plays such a critical role, and I think in a company like Kerry, we’re really fortunate to have so much data at our fingertips. In some cases, it’s, you know, it’s difficult to make sense of it all, but I suppose this process allowed us to kind of see beyond that noise and start to shape a view, to allow us again, to anticipate that change. So, it really is not about predicting the future. It’s not about taking data and predicting the future. It’s about taking the data, shaping it into a narrative, into a provocation, to allow us to anticipate that change that’s happening.

Karen: Cool. Super cool. So, let’s get into some potential use cases—whatever you are free to talk about, obviously because much of the work that you do is proprietary, and we understand that, right—but can you share a situation where your scenario planning actually impacted a customer? Is there something you can share with us publicly?

Brian: Yeah. Of course, yeah. I think there’s a really good case study where, you know, FutureLens has significantly impacted a key customer of ours. And it’s a large European retailer, which we would have brought them to our Global Centre—our Kerry Centre—in Naas, and set across two days where we would have workshopped FutureLens using a series of tool kits to really understand what it means for some of those key categories that the customer had and then as well. I suppose, that really entails prioritizing some of the scenarios based on what the customer was least prepared for and what was most uniquely relevant to them and the world that they live in as a big retailer in Europe as well. And I suppose, that laddered up to, you know, multiple briefs being received, which is obviously excellent, but the big piece of this was obviously further engagement, where we were able to use the framework to inspire their own foresight thinking internally, so Kerry having a direct impact on that. And that’s obviously, you know, great position for us to be in as an ingredient supplier with the customer. You know, they’re an influential retailer, and we would expect it to have a lot of indirect impacts from that interaction. And then, as well, you know, be it with, you know, private label manufacturers, or you know, brands that are stocked in store, or even just the direction of travel that they are currently seeing in their business, and I suppose, to spin that FutureLens can lend itself to being really important there. So, I’d say that would be a good case study. I don’t know if you’ve anything to add to that, David, yeah.

David: Yeah, we’ve kind of applied it to a lot of our own kind of research that we’ve been doing. So, we recently did a piece on iced beverages within food service. So essentially, what that allowed us to do, that initial piece of research, was identify a range of [need 00:19:50] states that the consumer was trying to achieve across Europe by purchasing iced beverages, something we know are kind of really growing massively, and there’s a huge amount of consumer interest in them. So, within those need states, we were actually able to apply three of our scenarios again, so kind of prioritize them on the same basis that Brian just spoke through, in terms of how unique are the scenarios to the food service beverage category, and how prepared is it? So, on the basis of the one we’re least prepared for and is most unique, we brought three of those forward, and we worked with our [barista 00:20:20], actually, on this basis. So, as well as some of our commercial team, our marketing and innovation team. And that allowed us to kind of, you know, apply the three scenarios to the need states, and start to kind of come up with a range of innovation platforms or emerging spaces for us to think about how we could create technology innovation for the future. So, Kerry is an ingredient supplier. A lot of what we’re doing is packaging off solutions that can be put into the end consumers’s product. So, that could be, you know, sugar reduction, or it could be calorie reduction in the iced beverage, calorie in a way that doesn’t impact on taste, done through kind of natural, authentic taste solutions. But we’re using this now to start thinking about what’s next. What do we need to come up with in two or three or four years’ time for us to kind of build into those categories that are linked back to the need stage. So, I think it’s a really nice way for us to think about a need, a challenge, from a market and an industry perspective. And then we task our scientists, where we have 1100 of them working at Kerry to come up with the solutions. And I mean, it’s amazing when you see that coming together. So, we see the market changes, the consumer needs, and then the solutions that they’re working on, and that goes into a stage gate takes, you know, two, three years for them to work through, and then at the point when it’s ready to launch, it’s kind of on shelves, you know, on menus and food service all across Europe. And I think that’s really nice to see that kind of connectivity across the board. And we came up with some really exciting spaces in that day-long session, which are being worked through in that stage gate model now. And you know, some of them we’ll hopefully see on the market in the next 12 to 18 months. So, yeah, it’s nice to see kind of, you know, the customer aspect, which Brian spoke through, but actually how it’s impacting on our own innovation at Kerry as well.

Karen: So, this is where I go again. It’s so, again, fascinating to me, my physical reaction to the mere thought that we might struggle with coffee bean production. But what I’m hearing is, even if there are macro reasons why coffee beans might be endangered, [laugh] for lack of a better word—you could expand, if you can—but that there are scientists on the job who are going to make sure that my coffee consumption is protected in the future. Is that accurate?

David: It is. I can’t say we’re working on it at Kerry, but, um, yeah. Like, that is a really—that’s a good example of a challenge that we see today. So, the Arabica coffee bean can’t grow in a warming climate, and I know that, you know, you can read about it in publications. It’s there where there are scientists using CRISPR gene editing that crop to be more climate resilient, but there are other solutions that we can build in to make sure that everyone has their cup of joe in the morning. I think what we’re seeing today is a real life example of this, where we’re having a huge issue with citrus and juice. So, the citrus greening disease, this has led to, actually, I think it’s a 60% reduction in orange production over the past two decades, and it’s really impacting Brazil at the minute, which accounts for about 70 to 80% of the world’s orange juice supply. And the disease has affected around 35 to 40% of orange trees in Brazil. So, we’re seeing a huge, kind of, reduction in the supply of juice, which goes into flavoring products, not just into our orange juice that we have in the morning. But we have some solutions within our business, within our taste portfolio, which allows for us to, kind of, through modulation and various other techniques, we’re able to kind of, you know, limit the impact of that juice supply on certain categories, and do so in a way that, I suppose, is environmentally sustainable, it’s linked back to our sustainable nutrition vision, and solves for some of those challenges as well. But I think, you know, we haven’t seen that happen to coffee just yet. It is happening in pockets, obviously, but we’re seeing it in other areas, so definitely in orange juice is a significant impact. And you see that on the shelves of your supermarkets. If you go and you see how much the price of juice has skyrocketed over the last, kind of, number of months, it’s directly linked back to that availability of resource and availability of the supply of those ingredients, which goes into it.

Karen: I just love this conversation because a few years ago—my background is in qualitative research—and a few years ago, at one of the firms I was working for, I was introduced to food scientists at a different level. I had never worked that intensely with that front end of the food and beverage innovation cycle, if you will. And I found it also fascinating, and then, you know—full disclosure—at the time when I was working in foods, I also worked closely with our friends at IFF. And so, I started to see this whole world that many, many researchers are not really a part of, right? So, it’s like one part R&D and one part innovative thinking, which you don’t necessarily think of those two things coming together, innovation with science, right? So, it’s a really fascinating space that you work in. So, I appreciate the glimpse under the hood. But let’s just talk about some tips or some thoughts because not everybody does what you do, right, which is work in that intersection of R&D and innovation. And I’m curious as to scenario planning in general, if people want to start to explore this for their own businesses—maybe it’s in the B2B space, or maybe it’s in whatever industry they are currently operating in—what are some tips, some expert advice that you can offer up to people looking at this type of work?

Brian: Yeah, I think you rightly mentioned, Karen, like, we’re really lucky at Kerry to be able to do this type of work. And we’re definitely, you know, in—I certainly consider myself as very lucky to work in an insights role where we are empowered to do this type of work. And I think one of the things that has worked really well for us in the, you know, the upfront creation, or if it’s, you know, actually in terms of the outputs, using it with customers, or using it internally, or otherwise, it’s having that stakeholder buy-in, and having that open conversation where we are co-creating opportunity spaces, a lot of the time, with our R&D teams, or you know, we’re bringing them on the journey. And in terms of what FutureLens is, what the seven scenarios could mean, but then getting as you say, and as David rightly mentioned you have that 1100 scientists getting their expert view in terms of how it all sits through. So like, a lot of the time, we will be facilitating, you know, those conversations, but it’s the expertise that adds so much color to the broader picture of innovation sessions, and also, you know, customer conversations. So, for me, it’s the stakeholder buy-in and that kind of bringing people along on that way of thinking. Because it is a different way of thinking. It’s stepping outside the day-to-day, a lot of the time, and that has been really helpful in terms of getting that richness of insight that the foresight program has allowed us to do.

David: And I think another point I’d build on that will be how you actually activate it with your teams as well. Because I think the first part, which Brian talked about, is so important, like, getting their buy-in. Some people honestly thought we were a bit crazy [laugh] when we came up with this whole idea of bringing it into our business, but by, you know, going on that process and showing them what it can do, I think it was really critical in setting it up for success. And then actually, how we bring it into the business, and I think the creativity element of it is so important. How do we immerse people in these worlds? And we’re really lucky at the minute with, you know, the technology that exists where you can—like, we had a session with the customer yesterday, and it was quite a long session. We had, like, a two-hour presentation of Brian and I taking them through each of the scenarios, walking them through it, doing prioritization. But what we built in throughout that was a video at the start of each of the scenario, which was created through an AI avatar, which could introduce the scenario to them, talk to them about it. They’re based in the future. Some of them were a little bit crazy looking and didn’t look like real people, but again, it just immerses people in that world. And we also have lots of visualizations of what they look like. We’ve activated it at events as well. So, we presented this at UN Climate Week in New York in September, and kind of, got our R&D and scientists to come up with a range of, kind of, props which were inspired by the Museum of Modern Art, again, creating kind of visualizations in real lives, of walking people through each of the scenarios, bringing it to life and helping them to connect with it. And I think, out of that, I suppose, it allows people to really get out of the day-to-day and start thinking about how the world is shifting and changing. And then they walk away with, what does this mean to me and my role? What do I need to be thinking about and doing? And it’s also a bit of fun as well. Like, I think that’s important too. You know, we need to have a bit of fun when we’re doing our jobs as well, right? It can get pretty boring if you’re just kind of trudging through numbers and ferment, and so it’s nice to get away from the Excel and into kind of visualization of it all.

Karen: I love that. And, you know, I also want to talk about one other thing, which always becomes really poignant to me—and I know that this came up when you were presenting in Europe also—is this whole idea about, like, a framework and a model. Like, we have these tools that are used in this type of work, and they serve a really distinct purpose. I have said, more often than not, whenever a potential speaker—for instance—talks to me, and they’re like, “Well, I have a framework.” And I’m like, “Ooh, let’s talk about the framework.” What do you think it is that brings such value to frameworks or models? What does that assist with?

David: I think for us, it starts to shape the thinking, right? You know, we what we built our whole framework on—so the initial, kind of, framework, in terms of how we set up the process was external environment, systemic change, understand that change from a Kerry perspective, and then how do we create the change? So, that’s kind of the systematic way that we work through it. The framework, in terms of the outputs, were based on a two-by-two, and that whole premise of on the x-axis, we looked at our planetary health, mapping it from being catastrophic to more manageable, on the y-axis, we looked at the availability of resources or our freedom of choice, essentially, as consumers, to make, decisions about what’s available on the shelves of supermarkets or in food service establishments all around the world. And that kind of shapes it into the four distinct areas, right? So, it’s really about shaping the mind and helping us to think about the change. And I think—I’m a qualitative researcher, I’m also a management consultant, and I like to have an idea of what’s happening in terms of that conceptual way of it unfolding, rather than just kind of stabbing in the dark, right? I need to have a bit of a process to kind of flow through it. And it’s just a framework. We can also change it as it needs to change. It's dynamic, and it has to be in order for it to work within a business like Kerry as well. But I think it allows us to kind of shape the thinking, shape the conversation. And I’m sure, Brian, you have perspectives on that as well.

Brian: Yeah, no, I think you’ve summarized it really, really brilliantly. Like, I remember when I would have joined Kerry and—over a year ago now—and the framework itself was just in terms of a simplification of the tool. Because when you explain it at a high level, you know, it’s big, it’s bold, and it’s out there, it’s set in 2030, and you’re kind of going, okay, well, where do I go? How do I get into these worlds? Or how do I or why should, I suppose? So, the two-by-two definitely allows us to do that on those two critical uncertainties, and then really paints, as David said, those four different areas for innovation, which the seven scenarios are then mapped across. And so, it was definitely an aid in terms of, you know, getting in under the hood of what a foresight framework might look like. And that two-by-two definitely allowed us to do that, yeah.

David: In a company like Kerry, it’s like, we’re two people sitting in an organization with over 20,000 working in it. Our teams in North America, and LATAM have now taken it, so the framework allows them to take it and apply it within their business, within their units as well. So, it also allows for that kind of scalability and replicability across other regions in the world too.

Karen: Yeah. And you know, I just as you’re talking and explaining it, and I’m feeling kind of relief and comfort that those exist for the work that is so big, right? There’s so much, and it’s so complex, and so, you know, on some level, there’s ambiguity because it is an uncertain future, and yet the frameworks really make it much more comfortable to even understand and digest on your part, let alone then present it and share that story out with others. So anyway, I’m always fascinated by that, and so I appreciate that you’re doing it. You know, I guess you know, really, one last question I have for both of you is, you know, kind of the, all right, well, what’s next? Do you have anything on the horizon, anything you’re really excited about? This is kind of your chance to, you know, just talk about the stuff that you might have going on that, you know, that kind of gets you up each morning saying, “You know what? I do cool work.” [laugh].

Brian: Yeah, I think so, from my side, anyway, we started off talking about trends and why the foresight framework isn’t, you know, essentially trend-based scenarios, but also, you know, the synergies that we do see. And we’ve spent, you know, the last couple of months, and you know, in terms of deep-diving into the trends for 2025, and what it means for Kerry through multiple angles. And so Kerry, we’re a sustainable nutrition company, as David mentioned, broken up into taste and nutrition, and with that, we have just launched our taste and nutrition trends, and two separate campaigns for 2025. So, that was the big one, and that, kind of, have come out in the last week, week or so. So, they are, you know, as the name suggests, set in what is influencing taste right now globally, and then we distill that down. What does it mean for Europe, and the other regions will do something very similar. And then we go even further in terms of, what does that mean for a given product category in those trends? And so, they’re global, they’re taste forward, and then it’s distilled down for the business unit or the team who need it. And then similarly, on the other side of the house, so the nutrition, we’re really lucky in Kerry, again—I know David has mentioned a few times in terms of the scientific experts we have in-house, and one of the top leadership platforms that we do have is Kerry’s Health and Nutrition Institute, something I’m really passionate about, and it’s really all around the science for healthier food, and communicating that. And we don’t mention, you know, what technologies Kerry may have or can support with it. It’s very much our scientists’ voice, and what they’re seeing in the market from the research that they’ve done. And again, a lot of them will have PhDs, and we collaborate with them, and also an external scientific advisory council who will paint the trends each year, and so, this year for 2025. It’s also a shameless plug here, but it’s the ten-year anniversary in 2025, so we’re going big and bold for it. And so yeah, we’ve launched our nutrition trends over the last week to support that. There’s probably other things I’ve missed, which I’m hoping, David, will cover off as well, though. Yeah.

Karen: All right. So, we are suddenly getting some tech difficulties, so we’re going to use that as the machines telling us it’s time to wrap up. So gentlemen, [laugh] I want to say thank you so much for joining us, David and Brian. It was a pleasure to have you here.

Brian: Thanks so much. Talk soon.

David: Thank you very much, Karen. It was great. We love talking to you.

Karen: You’re very welcome. You’re very welcome. And also, thank you to our audio editor from Big Bed Audio, who is now going to have his work cut out for him, but I know he’s up to the task, so Jamie, thank you for all you do. For Brigette, for helping to produce this episode, and of course, to all of our listeners, we are grateful that you are here. I hope you found this not just an interesting conversation, but also inspiring for your future work to think about our future scenarios. So, have a great day everybody, and we’ll see you the next time. All right, bye-bye.